
An Airblue plane
From: Flickr / ati977
The crash of an Airblue Airbus A321 while attempting to land at the Pakistani capital city of Islamabad is the third accident in three months involving relatively new airlines.
The others were:
May 12: An Airbus A330 of Afriqiyah Airways inexplicably crashes in fine weather on its final approach to Tripoli International Airport, Libya. 103 passengers and crew die. (For some reason the Airbus was landing on a runway with the least advanced navigation aids.)
May 23: A Boeing 737 of Air India Express overshoots the runway at Mangalore, careens over a cliff and explodes. 158 passengers and crew die. (This hilltop runway is notorious for its trickiness.)
In this latest disaster 152 passengers and crew died. The crash has characteristics that used to be common to many crashes: Extremely poor visibility, caused by fog, on final approach; instructions from the air traffic controllers to abort an approach and make several circuits before attempting another, and then “loss of contact.”
This is the monsoon season in Pakistan. Pilots familiar with the approach to Islamabad say that the combination of bad visibility and mountainous terrain can be challenging. Nonetheless, fatal crashes in Pakistan air space are rare, and the pilot of the Airblue Airbus was highly experienced, logging more than 25,000 hours in 35 years.
Many Pakistani commercial pilots are recruited from the military, which insures a high level of proficiency, and also familiarity with the demands of the climate and landscape.
All of which makes this crash odd because it just should not have happened. Much of the effort over the past decades to make flying safer has been targeted at just those conditions. A combination of highly sophisticated instrumentation in the cockpits of modern jets and a matching sophistication in ground-based navigation aids has virtually eliminated the risk of what were called “controlled flight into terrain” accidents.
All three of the airplanes in these three crashes were state-of-the-art, delivered in the last decade. Mechanical or technical failure is highly unlikely. However, all these airlines are very young, with slender track records.
The Libyan-owned Afriqiyah Airways was founded in 2001; Air India Express, the budget offshoot of Air India, was founded in 2004, as was Airblue in Pakistan.
They are harbingers of a sea change in the airline industry. This has been a decade of explosive growth as the demand for cheap air travel has exploded across the globe. Entrepreneurs in those parts of the world where demand had for years well exceeded supply spotted that there was a striking new business model in commercial aviation - the budget airline.
Pioneered first by Southwest in the U.S., then accelerated in Europe by two runaway successes, Ryanair and Easyjet, the budget model has now caught on big time in Asia. Essential to that model are the two best-selling airplanes in the world: the Boeing 737 and the Airbus A320.
At last week’s big international air show at Farnborough in England the plane makers were smacking their chops at the prospect of the sales in Asia, which Airbus and Boeing see as the world’s biggest airplane market. In the next 20 years, they say, that market alone could generate orders worth more than one trillion dollars.
Another number is striking: In 2001 budget carriers in Asia flew to 48 airports. In 2009 they served 576 airports.
This year’s run of crashes should sound a very clear warning that you can’t have this kind of growth without ensuring that the infrastructure essential to safety is in place - the most modern navigation aids on the ground, air traffic controllers trained to the highest standards, rigorous government oversight of the licensing of new airlines and the training of crews.
When it comes to the airlines themselves, there have been rising concerns about overworked and tired flight crews, a critical issue where the U.S. has itself been overly lax. If the profit-driven budget airline business has forced short cuts here at home, you can bet the same problem will show up around the world.
For travelers it has become increasingly difficult to make a judgment on the safety of an airline if it shows up in an itinerary for a connecting flight from a hub in a distant part of the world.
International regulators, particularly the International Civil Aviation Organization, need urgently to step in and press for far greater vigilance in the process of licensing and monitoring the wave of new carriers. We should remember when looking at those gleaming new jets sitting at the gate with their crowd-pleasing livery: It’s not just airplanes that have crashes, it’s airlines.

















